The transition to new energy vehicles will have an important impact on energy conservation and emission reduction in the automotive industry. Taking passenger cars as an example, in 2021, the value of carbon emissions per unit mileage of pure electric vehicles is about 70 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer, and that of fuel vehicles is about 176 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer.

Ouyang Minggao

Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundreds Association

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to October, sales of new energy vehicles in my country have exceeded 2.5 million.

“This year’s market growth has exceeded expectations, but it is logical.” On December 2, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association, discussed the technology and market of new energy vehicles at the media communication meeting of the China Electric Vehicles Association. Highlights and mid-to-long-term trends stated that in 2021, the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly month by month, and the marketization of new energy vehicles will enter a new stage of explosive growth. He predicts that domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.3 million units this year.

In Ouyang Minggao’s view, the cause of the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market is the result of technological progress, abundant products, and strong policies. In terms of technology, the battery technology of electric vehicles continues to improve and costs are reduced, and the structural design of the battery system continues to innovate, such as large-scale applications such as blade batteries, and large-scale lithium iron phosphate batteries to equip cars; in terms of products, electric vehicles have been promoted for many years , The brand image has been improved, and a large number of new models introduced are newer than traditional cars; in terms of policies, the continuation of subsidies, double-point price increases, and the introduction of the national dual-carbon strategy are expected to guide manufacturers and young customers.

From January to October, the global sales of generalized new energy passenger vehicles reached 7.02 million units, and China’s new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 51% of the world’s share. Based on the empirical judgment of the S-shaped growth curve, Ouyang Minggao said that the global automotive electrification has broken through the critical point and entered a period of steep growth. “It is estimated that China’s new energy vehicle sales will continue to grow to 5 million units next year. This is still a conservative estimate limited by battery supply, chip supply and capacity constraints.” Ouyang Minggao said.

Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, said that the industrialization of my country’s new energy vehicles will go through three stages: policy-driven, policy + market-driven, and market-driven. Among them, the second stage is a low-carbon and green stage, as well as a networked and intelligent stage.

What contribution will the explosive growth of new energy vehicles make to carbon reduction? The Global Carbon Neutrality Roadmap released by the International Energy Agency in May believes that from 2020 to 2030, global electric cars will increase by 18 times, and annual sales will reach 55 million in 2030.

Ouyang Minggao believes that this is a more radical forecast based on the low-carbon development goal. Foreign relatively conservative forecasts believe that the global sales of electric vehicles will be 30 million in 2030.

Based on the calculation analysis and comprehensive judgment of the research team, Ouyang Minggao made an overall forecast for China’s electric vehicle market: It is estimated that in 2025, my country’s new energy vehicle sales will be between 7 million and 9 million; in 2030, it is expected to reach 1,700. 10,000-19 million vehicles. From the perspective of inventory, it will be close to 100 million in 2030.

Obviously, the transition to new energy vehicles will have an important impact on energy conservation and emission reduction in the automotive industry. Taking passenger cars as an example, Ouyang Minggao said that in 2021, the value of carbon emissions per unit mileage of pure electric vehicles is about 70 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer, and that of fuel vehicles is about 176 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer.

“It is estimated that the carbon emissions per unit mileage of pure electric vehicles will be reduced to 20 grams per kilometer in 2035, which is a reduction of more than 70% compared to 2021.” According to Ouyang Minggao’s analysis, the main reason for the substantial reduction is the change in energy structure, that is, the proportion of green electricity. Caused by the rise. As the proportion of green electricity increases, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles will be greatly reduced.

Speaking of the future evolution of the industrial structure, Ouyang Minggao believes that in 2023, Chinese and foreign brand new energy vehicles will enter a period of fierce competition.

“From the perspective of core technology, domestic brands are powerful.” Ouyang Minggao said that batteries account for 60% of the technical content of electric vehicles. The current generation of battery technology in China is dominant. At present, Japan and other countries are vigorously developing the next generation of all-solid-state batteries. Although my country still has a gap in the development of this technology compared with foreign countries, it is estimated that it will take about 10 years for the industrialization of all-solid-state battery technology to have an important impact on the market structure.

In terms of supply chain, my country’s power battery industry chain is complete, 70% of the world’s battery production capacity is in China, and products are supplied to the world. Ouyang Minggao bluntly said that from the perspective of vehicle brands, the outbreak of electric vehicles is a challenge for old brands and an opportunity for new brands. “Under the new wave of electrification and intelligence, Chinese independent brands are confident in occupying a dominant position in the future auto industry competition.” Ouyang Minggao said.