Global EV sales for 2019 and 2020 stayed below trend. In 2019 when “regulatory storms” in Europe and China reduced demand and supply of popular offers. In Europe, the WLTP introduction forced many high-selling PHEV models into the shop for e-range upgrades. In China, regulators cracked down on products with substandard safety and range. Dozens of models had their sales halted and several combatants went out of business.  In 2020, the first wave of Covid-19 caused and unprecedented slump in car sales but also increasing support by policy makers. In both years, EV sales would have been higher, in a business as usual situation.

2021 is far from business as usual, but EV sales are back on track. January to June deliveries have increased by 1,66 million units compared to 2020, in a global light vehicle market that gained 9,17 million units. We expect a similar volume gain for EVs in H2.

6,4 million in 2021 and 98 % growth y/y seems a lot, yet the trend in volumes/shares of the last 12 months, more choice of better, affordable products, solid policy support and higher public awareness all underpin this forecast. The YTD SAAR would support an even higher number. The downside is in component shortage and events in China relating to sudden changes in regulation or business conditions.